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Five years later, signs that the Paris Agreement is working

Global warming forecasts look a little dark in the long run, but not so rosy in the short run.

Scientists and diplomats have promised that many countries will wipe out action, and the expected temperature rise will be smaller than before, which is as dark as when the historic Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. He states that there is no prospect for the middle to late centuries.

But they warn that the effects of global warming are already hitting the planet harder than scientists have predicted. They also say that despite the low prices of renewable energy, the use of coal, oil and natural gas, which contribute to climate change, has not diminished as much as needed.

On Saturday, just five years after the Paris Agreement was signed, world leaders will virtually meet, celebrate progress and plan the next steps.

Organized by France, the United Kingdom and the United Nations, the summit aims to increase ambition and pressure leaders to carry out their past promises in the coming years.

More than 100 countries and more companies, states and cities are committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by the middle of the century. Most of those promises are not the official goals of the Paris Agreement, which are aimed at the goals by 2030.

The European Union, the group’s third-largest emitter in the world, strengthened its continental 2030 carbon reduction target from 40% to 55% of 1990 emission levels on Friday.

The US government, which has worked to reach an agreement under President Barack Obama, will not attend on Saturday. The Trump administration has removed the United States from the Paris Agreement. President-elect Joe Biden has promised to rejoin the United States and put it on track to stop adding more carbon to the atmosphere than it can remove by 2050.

The climate change situation has changed in five years, and UN officials have acknowledged both cold and harsh economics and pushes from the idealistic younger generation. But Sweden’s teenage environmentalist Greta Thunberg blew up world leaders on Thursday by setting “distant virtual goals” while “speeding in the wrong direction.”

Carbon pollution had barely increased globally from 2018 to 2019, but fell by 7% this year due to a pandemic, but could increase again. Renewable energies are often cheaper than dirty fossil fuels because the costs of wind and solar power have fallen sharply.

However, such developments are mitigated by the reality that poor, sometimes lowland countries are already facing existential threats from rising sea levels and the effects of other climate changes.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told The Associated Press in an email, “I’m surprised at the growing evidence of accelerated climate destruction and fraud.” “But I’m also optimistic by the growing coalition to achieve net zero emissions … this is a tribute to the resilience of the Paris Agreement.”

In 2015, Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists scrutinizing emission pledges and converting them into temperature forecasts, said the world was heading towards warming 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) before the Industrial Revolution. I said there is. This is far beyond the goal of Paris. To limit the rise in global temperature.

Currently, the group states that the world is currently heading towards 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit, but 127 countries that have promised to move to zero net carbon emissions have actually done so. In that case, the warming will be only 2.1 degrees (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit). It’s shy to one of Paris’ goals.

“In the last five years, we have moved from a completely catastrophic climate change to a still catastrophic climate change of 2.9 degrees Celsius, but it is definitely much better than it looked before.” , Said Niclas Hene, a tracker who is a German scientist at the New Climate Institute.

This year, with record Atlantic storms, wildfires in Australia, the United States and the Amazon, and warming in the Arctic, we will be in the top two or three of the warmest records. After the end of this year, all the hottest decades on record will be the last 16 years.

UN Prime Minister António Guterres remains to implement his promises to countries, as well as amending the rules of global trade in carbon emissions, which are key to effectively reducing emissions and addressing inequality. He said it was a challenge.

“Globally, the top 1% of income earners emit more than twice the total share of the world’s poorest 50%,” said Anne Olhoff, United Nations Environment Program Policy and Planning Director. I will. In order for the world to reach its strictest Parisian goals, “the wealthiest 1%” needs to reduce emissions to one-thirtieth of what it is today, she said.

But Christiana Figueres, a former UN climate director who was the driving force behind the Paris negotiations, said the undercurrent has changed since 2015. This is evidenced by the decision by major investors, such as the New York Public Pension Fund, to stop funding fossil fuels.

“We are moving faster than ever and we will continue to speed up,” said Figueras. Yes, by choice and evidence. “

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Follow AP’s Climate Coverage at https://www.apnews.com/Climate

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter. @borenbears And Frank Jordan: @wirereporter ..

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The Associated Press’s Department of Health Sciences is supported by the Department of Science Education at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Five years later, signs that the Paris Agreement is working

Source link Five years later, signs that the Paris Agreement is working

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