A new study by researchers at Pennsylvania State University (Pennsylvania State University) shows that which of the widely accepted global circulation models is closest to predicting the amount of global warming ultimately caused by climate change. , Corn production will decrease.
They assessed the potential impact of 18 warming scenarios determined by different atmospheres. Greenhouse gas concentrationJudging the potential impact in the future Climate change With irrigation and rainwater corn yield From the 2020s to the 2090s. The study focused on the US Great Plains, which is located in the heart of the highest corn-producing regions of the United States, but the results are believed to have global implications.
To estimate yields, researchers use the AquaCrop model (a crop growth simulation developed by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization) to predict the response of yields to water and the impact of environment and management on crop production. I evaluated it. The survey sites represent the region’s agricultural management practices and represent the most irrigated areas of the Central Plains, a subregion of the Great Plains.
Corn is susceptible to environmental factors such as rising temperatures, increased radiation, lack of vapor pressure, and changes in humidity, says Senior Researcher Professor Suat Irmak and Head of Agriculture and Biotechnology, Faculty of Agriculture. He and his team said that irrigation yields would be affected much less than rainwater yields.
“In our study, depending on the level associated with the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Global warmingYields on rainwater corn decreased in the range of 2.2% to 21.5%, “he said.” Under the same greenhouse gas concentration, irrigation technology provides, so the range of reduction in irrigation yield is 3.7% to 15.6%. And lower. More stable crop growth conditions under water and temperature stress. “
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Irmak explained that the Earth’s climate is very likely to warm from now to 2.16 to 3.42 degrees Fahrenheit. According to the United Nations Commission, the global average surface temperature during the period 2001-20 was 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the period 1850-1900 before the Industrial Revolution.
Irmak and other studies have shown that climate change is already affecting crop productivity of major crops across the world’s agroecosystems. Earlier, Irmak discovered that rising temperatures caused early spring frosts and late autumn frosts. This will increase the length of the growing season by up to 20 days or more, which will have a significant impact on agricultural production in the United States and around the world.
Research is important, Irmak pointed out, as corn is in many respects the country’s most important crop. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, corn occupies 92 million acres of land use in the United States. He said corn production could shift significantly to the eastern United States, with continued increases in temperature and atmospheric moisture demand, combined with limited water supply conditions in the Midwest and Western regions and poor water quality. I warned.
“These analyzes may help policy makers, decision makers, agricultural and water resources managers / experts assess future trade-offs. Irrigation “Rainwater yield and rainwater yield,” he said. “They need to know how landscapes are expected to work under two scenarios with respect to climate change.”
According to recently published survey results Agricultural water managementBased on modeling results, researchers report that rainwater yields are projected to decrease by up to 40 bushels per acre, while irrigation yields are projected to decrease by only 19 bushels per acre. In addition, the yield of rainwater maize is more variable than the yield from irrigated maize under most global circulation models.
Irmak pointed out that these reductions would be detrimental, as corn is virtually embedded in our lives. It is used for animal feed, human consumption, fiber production and field production of ethanol. Therefore, he suggested that agronomists need to analyze the expected loss of production and its consequences. “Climate change is a reality and it’s the ultimate return,” he said. “We need to understand how this affects our country’s policies and food supply.”
Changes in climatic characteristics are predicted to manifest themselves as rising average temperatures in most land and sea areas, with increased potential for extreme heat, high rainfall, drought and shortage of precipitation. increase. These climate shocks and changes affect crop yields, acreage, food supply and impact sustainable agricultural development and poverty eradication goals.
“But temperature and precipitation, along with other important meteorological variables, have complex effects on crop yields, making it difficult to estimate the magnitude of these changes,” he said. “This can only be done with a good crop model. Pennsylvania will carry out a similar long-term analysis of specialty crop systems, including fruit trees and major row crops.”
This study is part of a long-term study investigating the basis of combined climate change and the impact of water, nutrients and crop management strategies on the productivity of agroecosystems and the environmental relationship of crop systems, and Irmak is Nebraska. Starting at university, Penn State.
Contributors to the study were Rupinder Sandhu and Meetpal Kucal, who had master’s and doctoral degrees from the University of Nebraska under the supervision of Irmak and worked as postdocs. Kukal is currently an assistant professor of research at the Faculty of Agricultural and Biotechnology, Pennsylvania State University, and Sandhu is working with Locus Agricultural Solutions.
S. Irmak et al, Multi-model projection of trade-offs between yields of irrigated and rainwater maize under climate change and future emission scenarios, Agricultural water management (2021). DOI: 10.1016 / j.agwat.2021.107344
Pennsylvania State University
Quote: Global warming reduces corn production. Irrigation (February 22, 2022), which is expected to slow down the effect, is available from https://phys.org/news/2022-02-climate-result-corn-production-irrigation.html on February 22, 2022. Obtained on the day.
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Global warming reduces corn production.Irrigation is expected to slow down the effect
Source link Global warming reduces corn production.Irrigation is expected to slow down the effect