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New models help predict early spawning of fish caused by climate change

Credits: Peter Prokosch, GRIDA, https: //www.grida.no/resources/3510

Fisheries managers and researchers can now predict how early fish will spawn in response to rising water temperatures due to climate change, both in the ocean and in freshwater.


A new simple model developed by researchers at the University of British Columbia and the Chinese Academy of Sciences and applied to temperate spring spawning fish, with a very precise shift in maturity and spawning timing, taking into account changes in mean. Can be predicted. Annual temperature..

Built based on seasonal description temperature The change represented by two sine curves. This model is based on the concept of triggering a hormonal cascade that “tell” when a fish breeds when a certain temperature threshold is reached.

However, as the water temperature rises, the process becomes unbalanced as the fish need more oxygen to survive. The problem is that the gills on the 2D surface cannot keep up with the oxygen demand of the 3D growth and the oxygen demand of the new temperature. Therefore, this imbalance stresses the fish, causing it to mature and spawn faster.

“When the average annual temperature rises in a particular region and period, spring temperatures” arrive “earlier. The new model, which assumes seasonal temperature fluctuations observed in nature, requires only the difference in average temperature as input. It between two periods, and between summer and winter temperatures. Using only these two numbers, the model predicts by the number of days of spawning. fish Dr. Daniel Pauly, Principal Researcher and Lead Author of the Sea Around Us Initiative at the UBC Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, said: Environmental biology of fish..

“This simple model Hopefully, it will replace the complex hypothesis often presented to explain temporal changes in spawning in terms of adaptation to similar changes in the emergence of prey species. Cui Liang, co-author of this study and researcher at the Oceanography Institute of CAS.


Data confirm the link between respiratory stress and fish breeding


For more information:
Pauly D Other Fish Temperature and Maturity: A simple sinusoidal model for predicting accelerated spring spawning. Environ Biol Fish (2022). doi.org/10.1007/s10641-022-01212-0

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Quote: The new model is the early spawning of fish due to climate change acquired from https://phys.org/news/2022-02-climate-change-duced-early-spawning-fish on February 14, 2022 (2022). February 14th) is useful for forecasting. html

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New models help predict early spawning of fish caused by climate change

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