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Studies argue that parole risk assessment should consider time without recidivism

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As efforts to reverse mass imprisonment increase, so does the need to oversee more individuals in the community. In the face of growing demand, orthodontic agencies are increasingly using risk assessments to efficiently allocate supervisory and therapeutic resources and improve public safety. A new study investigated the amount of time individuals spent without being arrested or returning to prison, and examined the relationship between non-recidivism in the community and recidivism between individuals under parole supervision in Pennsylvania. .. The study concludes that those who assess the risk of parolees should incorporate information about time without recidivism.


NS study, By researchers at the University of Maryland and the University of Maryland Quarterly justice, A publication of the Academy of Criminal Justice.

“Many institutions dangerous An assessment as part of reforms to reduce the cost and size of orthodontic groups, “said Nicole Frisch Scott, an assistant professor of criminology and criminal justice who co-authored the study.Manage resources based on individual level Recidivism Risk and need for intervention. However, what is significantly lacking in these evaluations is time The individual remains free of recidivism. “

Crime studies have long observed that past crimes or their lack predict future criminal behavior. Time without recidivism has nothing to do with criminal needs or treatment, and no equipment is needed to measure it. In this study, researchers sought to determine whether non-recidivism time could contribute to risk prediction.

Researchers surveyed data from Pennsylvania using dynamic risk assessment tools and Parole Director from State prison From January 2006 to December 2008. Parolees were reassessed each year. Time without recidivism was defined as the time the parolee stayed in the community without recidivism or recidivism.

They found that by considering non-recidivism time, they could go beyond the risk assessment score and explain some of the changes in recidivism over time. Therefore, considering the non-recidivism time, risk prediction may improve, regardless of the annual or early risk assessment score. The study also found that repeated assessments of parole risk predicted recidivism more accurately than a single pre-release risk assessment score when an individual remained in the community.

The authors of this study suggest that considering time without recidivism may be more useful for institutions that assess risk once rather than repeatedly. Repeated assessments using dynamic risk measures appear to be a good predictor of recidivism, but there is room for improvement if the risk is only measured before being released from prison.

“Our findings demonstrate the value of time without recidivism and suggest its usefulness in decisions related to parole supervision and termination, as well as traditional risk assessment,” said Professor Kiminori Nakamura. increase. Criminal justice At the University of Maryland, where I co-authored the research. “Our findings also support the use of annual assessments rather than pre-release risk assessments. The former contains more information and captures expected recidivism fluctuations. This is because the Parole Commission may want to supplement the risk score with this information, given that the non-recidivism time independently predicts recidivism.

The authors noted that the study did not test the mechanism behind the observed relationship between recidivism-free time and reduced risk, and changed composition among participants (eg, for the first time). (Increasing prisoners, decreasing individuals committing drug and property crimes). Changes in living environment (suggested by reduced annual risk) evaluation Score) may explain the pattern of recidivism reduction.

In addition, the data from this study are limited to paroleed individuals in Pennsylvania, the country’s second-largest parole population, so the findings are in states where parole release and supervision use are more restricted. May not be applicable.Applicable to states that use tools other than specific tools risk assessment A tool used in Pennsylvania.


Immigrants who commit a felony are less likely to commit another felony than nonimmigrants


For more information:
Times of Change: Time without recidivism, risk of recidivism, and investigation of the relationship between risk assessments, Quarterly justice (2021).

Provided by the Crime and Justice Research Alliance

Quote: According to a survey, a parole risk assessment was taken from https://phys.org/news/2021-10-asserts-parolees-recidivism-free.html on October 13, 2021 without recidivism. You need to consider the time (October 13, 2021).

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Studies argue that parole risk assessment should consider time without recidivism

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