Over the quarter century of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, whose mission is to save humanity from itself, one is seen as a chaotic failure (Copenhagen / 2009), the other as an amazing success (Paris / 2015), and the rest. I landed in the middle.
This year’s COP26 stimulated all these reactions at once.
Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, who marched through the city of Glasgow with the help of 100,000 people, rejected the two-week meeting as a “greenwashing festival.”
However, enthusiastic experts in the negotiating table welcomed solid and even historic progress in defeating the threat of global warming.
Observers often shook between approval and criticism, hope and despair.
“The Glasgow Climate Pact is more than we expected, but less than we expected,” said Dan Mitchell, Head of Climate Hazard at the Met Office. “.
The measurement of the effectiveness of the measures presented at the COP26 Summit is highly dependent on the criteria used to measure them.
Poor countries have promised that 196 countries will call for the first reduction in coal-fired power compared to before, or double their fiscal aid each year to about $ 40 billion. Climate impact, Is a big step forward.
Similarly, provisions that require countries to consider setting more ambitious goals for reductions. Carbon pollution Every year, not once every five years.
However, all these hard-earned profits at COP26 will be significantly reduced when combined with hard science.
Glasgow exit lane
The uninterrupted cascade of deadly floods, heat waves and wildfires across four continents in 2021 combined with more detailed forecasts than ever before at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.6 Fahrenheit) envisioned by the Paris Agreement. When the heating limit is exceeded, the earth becomes a red zone.
Alden Meyer, senior analyst at E3G, a climate and energy think tank, said:
“But the atmosphere responds to emissions rather than COP decisions, and much work remains to translate the strong rhetoric here into reality.”
In 2021, Part 1 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s comprehensive climate science integration for the first time in seven years was also seen.
It turns out that global heating is almost certain to exceed 1.5 ° C within 10 years. in the meantime, Sea level It is rising faster than expected and will rise for centuries.
And forests, soils and oceans, which absorb more than half of human carbon pollution, show signs of saturation.
Second, the permafrost layer releases large amounts of CO2 and methane, the Amazon basin turns into a savanna, and the ice sheet releases enough mass to submerge hundreds of millions of cities and deltas. there is.
“No doubt we are still on the road to hell,” said Dave Ray, director of the Institute for Climate Change at the University of Edinburgh.
“But Glasgow has at least created an exit lane.”
Permanent breaking news
Part 2 of the IPCC Report on Climate Impact was seen exclusively by AFP prior to its February 2022 publication, creating another yawning gap between COP26’s baby steps and long-term needs. It is clear.
Global heating synergies to extreme weather could soon require trillions of dollars a year instead of the tens of billions of dollars put on the table at COP26 to help vulnerable countries deal with them. there is.
“Adaptation costs are significantly higher than previously estimated, resulting in a wider“ adaptation funding gap, ”” said the executive summary of the 4,000-page report.
It’s hard to imagine where these signs come from, as rich countries couldn’t provide $ 100 billion a year to support developing countries by 2020.
Glasgow has shown the transition from embodying the rules of the 2015 Paris Convention to implementing them.
But unlike the aftermath of other major COPs, the climate crisis remains at the forefront, and this permanent break story does not quickly recede into the background.
How the story unfolds depends heavily on the world’s four major emitters and co-owns 60 percent of the world’s carbon pollution.
The United States and the European Union have promised carbon neutrality by 2050 and recently set more ambitious emission reduction targets for 2030, but over 130 developments to help pay for already occurring climate damage. Refused to establish the fund required by developing countries.
All sectors, all countries
China and India, which accounted for 38% of world emissions in 2021 and are increasing, have resisted the pressure to foresee fossil fuels.
Beijing has categorically refused to do what scientists say is feasible and necessary to stay below 2C: peaking their emissions much earlier than 2030.
But if climate politics remains in dire straits, world capital has already flowed into what is called the largest economic transformation in human history.
In Glasgow, former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney boasted that about $ 130 trillion worth of banks, insurance companies and asset managers were ready to fund climate change.
“If you only need to transform one sector or relocate one country Fossil fuel, We would have done it long ago. ” Christiana Figueres, who headed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change when the Paris Agreement was signed, commented.
“But all sectors of the world economy must be decarbonized and all countries must switch to clean technology.”
It also focuses on who may be left behind, as some of that money may flow, as well as large investment transactions for South Africa and pipes for emerging economies such as Indonesia and Vietnam. The line has been announced.
However, there are few incentives for private capital to help the poorest and most vulnerable countries cope with climate change and strengthen their defenses.
“We can’t wait for open market incentives to come true. We need to set carbon prices globally. We need to set science-based goals. climate The law. ” Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Studies, said.
© 2021 AFP
Quote: Climate Change 2021: It will not return to the present (November 30, 2021) acquired from https: //phys.org/news/2021-11-climate-1.html on November 30, 2021.
This document is subject to copyright. No part may be reproduced without written permission, except for fair transactions for personal investigation or research purposes. Content is provided for informational purposes only.
There is no turning back now
Source link There is no turning back now