jacksonville, florida – Tropical Storm Ian turns into a hurricane on Monday morning with further rapid intensification expected.
At the 5:00 AM update from the National Hurricane Center, Ian’s course is slightly off to the west. Models suggest Ian is following a similar track moving into the Big Bend area along the Gulf Coast.
Here are the changes since the last NHC update:
Strength increased to 75 mph winds.
Ian is expected to reach Category 4 intensity in the Gulf.
Models moved further west from the shores of Tampa Bay to spend more time on the bay’s hot waters.
As the risk of landfall increases further north of Tampa Bay, the hurricane may weaken and move into the Panhandle.
At 5am, the center of the tropical storm was about 315 miles south-southeast of Cuba, with expected wind and storm surge effects.
Ian is moving northwest at nearly 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and strong gusts. A westward movement is expected, changing to a northwest and north-northwest movement on Monday, and a northerly movement is expected to continue on Tuesday.
Predicted trajectories predict Ian’s center to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands.
Ian then moves near or over western Cuba late Monday and appears in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Expect a significant boost over the next few days.
The strong winds of a tropical storm extend outwards up to 90 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb.
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect up to 8 inches of 3 to 6 inches of precipitation. Western Cuba can range from 6 to 10 inches, with maxima up to 16 inches. From the Florida Keys to the southern and central parts of the Florida peninsula can be 2 to 4 inches, and local amounts Tuesday through Friday are 6 inches to 1 foot.
Hurricane warning in effect:
Cuban provinces of Juventu, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
A hurricane warning has been issued:
West coast of Florida from north of Englewood including Tampa Bay to the Ancrote River
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for:
Provinces of La Havana, Mayabeque and Matanzas in Cuba
From the Seven Mile Bridge head west through the Florida Keys to Key West
A tropical storm warning is in effect when:
Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
Chocoloski South of Inglewood
What to expect
Regardless of the exact course, chances of rain could increase late Tuesday into late next week.
Looking ahead, Ian’s effects will be felt starting late Tuesday with showers and storms. Rain and winds in excess of 30 mph are expected Wednesday. Thursday will bear the brunt of the storm, with rain and winds of over 40 mph. It will be rainy and windy on Friday. Expected total rainfall is between 6 inches and 1 foot.
stay at the Japan Meteorological Agency, News4JAX.com For updates in the next few days.
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https://www.news4jax.com/weather/2022/09/26/ian-becomes-a-hurricane-rapid-strengthening-expected/ Ian turns into a hurricane, rapid bullish forecast